Broken Arrow, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

183
FXUS64 KTSA 022348
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
548 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 548 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

 - Slightly cooler Tuesday to Wednesday behind a weak cold front.

 - Low rain chances Tuesday morning across SE OK into west-
   central AR, then a slight chance for mixed rain and snow
   northeast OK Wednesday morning.

 - Much warmer and drier weather resumes Thursday into next
   weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1057 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Temperatures will warm appreciably again today, with highs in the
mid 50s to low 60s. High clouds will increase into the afternoon,
but are not expected to keep temperatures down too much from
their potential. A weak front will begin to move through the area
overnight, with a pretty large variance in low temperatures as a
result. Lows will range from the low 30s in the north to mid 40s
in the south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1057 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Somewhat cooler air will spill into the area Tuesday behind the cold
front, but there is significant model spread in terms of observed
temperatures. The main uncertainties relate to the spatial extent of
low clouds as well as how long they may stick around. The most
likely outcome is probably a blend of the spread, with some low
clouds for part of the day, breaking apart in the afternoon. In this
case, high temperatures would drop about 10 degrees from today.
Model guidance continues to indicate just enough lift and moisture
return for some light showers along the front as it passes through
southeast OK and west-central AR. Total accumulation will be minimal.

A quick moving shortwave will then move through Wednesday morning.
Guidance is mostly consistent in showing a brief narrow corridor
where a few showers could develop. The best chance appears to be
across central to eastern OK, particularly the far NW tip of the
forecast area. The air will be marginally cold enough that rain
could mix with or change to snow briefly. As it looks now, the
worst case scenario appears to be a brief dusting, with no
accumulation being the most likely outcome.

Strong ridging will then develop across the Plains for the late week
period and into the weekend. Temperatures will respond, with highs
in the 50s-60s Thursday onwards. A few spots could even hit 70 F on
Friday. No additional rainfall will occur until beyond the 7 day
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Broken high clouds remain common this evening, though mid level
clouds are forecast to lift into southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas late evening and overnight tonight. At the same time, a
cold front is expected to drop into the region and push through
Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front, scattered/broken MVFR
conditions look to develop in southeast Oklahoma and western
Arkansas early Tuesday morning along with a slight chance of light
rain. At this time, the greater potential for MVFR conditions is
KFSM with lesser potential for KFYV/KXNA/KROG/KMLC. Will use Tempo
groups for timing of greater potential. Behind the front, a period
of scattered high clouds are forecast before additional high
clouds move in Tuesday afternoon. Winds through the period start
out southerly and then vary to west and northwesterly behind the
frontal passage. Also, stronger winds aloft will aid in low level
wind shear for most locations tonight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   35  50  29  47 /   0   0  10  20
FSM   38  53  29  49 /  20  20   0  10
MLC   41  55  31  50 /  20   0   0  10
BVO   29  49  26  45 /   0   0  20  20
FYV   36  47  25  43 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   37  47  26  42 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   37  52  29  47 /  10   0  10  10
MIO   32  45  25  42 /   0   0  10  10
F10   37  54  30  49 /  10   0  10  20
HHW   45  59  32  52 /  30  20   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20